Tuesday, 22 February 2011

Predicting which dictator will fall next




The Economist magazine has compiled a presentation detailing which Arab countries are most likely to witness civil unrest similar to what has broken out in many countries in the region, and so far led to the fall of the Tunisian and Egyptian governments. The authors have used indicators concerning corruption, proportion of the population under 25 years of age, and the time leaders have remained in power. Given that no single analyst that I know of predicted anything close to what has happened, and the spontaneity and unpredictability of these events, I am sceptical about these data, although they will give a scientific bases for assessing the potential for further Arab revolutions.  The Economist has placed Yemen at the top of its list, and Oman features quite high too at number 6.

Here’s is the presentation.



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